Developing a model to predict unfavourable treatment outcomes in patients with tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus co-infection in Delhi, India

Background Tuberculosis (TB) patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection have worse TB treatment outcomes compared to patients with TB alone. The distribution of unfavourable treatment outcomes differs by socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, allowing for early identification of patients at risk. Objective To develop a statistical model that can provide individual probabilities of unfavourable outcomes based on demographic and clinical characteristics of TB-HIV co-infected patients. Methodology We used data from all TB patients with known HIV-positive test results (aged ≥15 years) registered for first-line anti-TB treatment (ATT) in 2015 under the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP) in Delhi, India. We included variables on demographics and pre-treatment clinical characteristics routinely recorded and reported to RNTCP and the National AIDS Control Organization. Binomial logistic regression was used to develop a statistical model to estimate probabilities of unfavourable TB treatment outcomes (i.e., death, loss to follow-up, treatment failure, transfer out of program, and a switch to drug-resistant regimen). Results Of 55,260 TB patients registered for ATT in 2015 in Delhi, 928 (2%) had known HIV-positive test results. Of these, 816 (88%) had drug-sensitive TB and were ≥15 years. Among 816 TB-HIV patients included, 157 (19%) had unfavourable TB treatment outcomes. We developed a model for predicting unfavourable outcomes using age, sex, disease classification (pulmonary versus extra-pulmonary), TB treatment category (new or previously treated case), sputum smear grade, known HIV status at TB diagnosis, antiretroviral treatment at TB diagnosis, and CD4 cell count at ATT initiation. The chi-square p-value for model calibration assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 0.15. The model discrimination, measured as the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, was 0.78. Conclusion The model had good internal validity, but should be validated with an independent cohort of TB-HIV co-infected patients to assess its performance before clinical or programmatic use.