EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON TUBERCULOSIS INCIDENCE IN RORAIMA OVER THE LAST DECADE (2014–2024)

Roraima has been the main entry state for Venezuelan migrants into Brazil, which poses significant challenges to local health services, including surveillance and control of infectious diseases such as tuberculosis (TB). This study aims to analyze the trend in the incidence of confirmed TB cases in Roraima between 2014 and 2024, correlating it with migratory flow. A retrospective descriptive epidemiological study was conducted using data on confirmed TB cases reported to the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN), of the Ministério da Saúde/SVSA, for the state of Roraima, covering the period from 2014 to 2024. Cases were stratified by year of diagnosis and by migrant status (Yes, No, Ignored/Blank). Statistical analysis focused on identifying temporal trends and the proportion of cases among migrants relative to total cases. The total number of TB cases in Roraima showed steady growth over the decade, increasing from 143 in 2014 to 551 in 2024, with a peak of 586 in 2023. The proportion of confirmed cases among individuals identified as migrants (“Yes”) showed a marked and consistent increase starting in 2017, coinciding with the intensified Venezuelan migratory flow. In 2017, 18 cases were reported among migrants, representing approximately 8.6% of the total (209 cases). This number increased to 65 in 2018, 82 in 2019, 72 in 2020, 80 in 2021, 94 in 2022, 139 in 2023, and 142 in 2024. In 2024, migrant cases accounted for approximately 25.8% of total cases (142 of 551). There was also a gradual increase in the number of cases among non-migrants, although with an apparently lower growth rate than that observed among migrants, as well as a significant number of cases with migrant status recorded as “Ignored/Blank,” especially in the early years of the series. Data analysis suggests a strong correlation between the increased incidence of tuberculosis cases in Roraima and the intensified Venezuelan migratory flow beginning in 2017. Migrants contributed significantly to the increase in the total number of cases, indicating the need to strengthen epidemiological surveillance actions, early diagnosis, and tuberculosis treatment for this population, as well as integration between health services and migration policies to mitigate the impact on local public health.