TB Research

Analysis of global behavior in a diffusive tuberculosis epidemic model structured by ages of latency and infection

Qian Jiang, Zhijun Liu, Lianwen Wang

Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation · 2026-01

Abstract

• An age-space structured TB model with post-exposure interventions is developed. • The well-posedness of the model and explicit expression of R 0 are derived. • The local and global asymptotic stability for the steady states is established. • The potential effects of post-exposure vaccination are assessed. This work investigates the global threshold dynamics of a novel tuberculosis (TB) model with spatial-diffusion and dual age structures (tracking both latent infection and active disease stages), incorporating key biological complexities like fast/slow progression and immune decline. A key initiative is the integration of post-exposure interventions to assess their potential impact on TB control. Analytically, we establish the model’s well-posedness applying the fixed point theory and contradiction method, and derive the reproduction number ( R 0 ) using renewal theory. Our primary theoretical result establishes the global asymptotic stability of the steady states, proven via the Lyapunov functionals, which reveals that transmission dynamics are entirely determined by R 0 : the disease is ultimately eliminated if R 0 ≤ 1; whereas the spread of TB will stabilize in an endemic state if R 0 > 1. Numerical simulations, calibrated with annual TB case data from China (2008-2023), confirm these dynamic behaviors. They further demonstrate that population mobility exacerbates epidemics, a risk overlooked in non-spatial models. Crucially, the findings show that enhancing post-exposure vaccination can effectively curb the surge in new TB cases, highlighting its important role in controlling outbreaks.

MeSH terms

  • Epidemic model
  • Basic reproduction number
  • Tuberculosis
  • Latency (audio)
  • Lyapunov function
  • Population
  • Global health
  • Exponential stability
  • Vaccination
  • Stability (learning theory)
  • Computer science
  • Transmission (telecommunications)
  • Psychological intervention
  • Disease
  • Mathematics
  • Population model
  • Econometrics
  • Stability theory
  • Demography
  • Mathematical modelling of infectious disease
  • Medicine