The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study

Background Recent shifts in the global health funding landscape-most notably the dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and possible reduced contributions to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria (Global Fund)-threaten essential tuberculosis (TB) services in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantified the potential impact on the household economic burden of TB. Methods and findings We used linked epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to 79 LMICs, to estimate future TB patient costs under six scenarios: continuation of 2024 funding levels (baseline), termination of USAID, termination of USAID plus announced reductions in Global Fund contributions from the USA alone, termination of USAID plus complete termination of Global Fund contributions from the USA alone, termination of USAID plus announced reductions in Global Fund contributions from all donor countries contributing 1% or more to the budget, and full elimination of external funding for TB. Outcomes included total TB-attributable household costs and numbers of households experiencing catastrophic costs (disease-related costs >20% of annual income). USAID termination was projected to produce US$7.5 (95% uncertainty interval: $6.1-8.9) billion in additional patient-incurred costs and 3.9 (3.1-4.6) million additional households experiencing catastrophic costs over 2025-2050. The worst-case scenario (elimination of all external funding) resulted in $79.7 ($60.0-99.2) billion in additional patient-incurred costs and 40.5 (30.9-50.7) million additional households experiencing catastrophic costs-a 32% increase over baseline. Impacts were greatest for poorer households, with over 50% of additional catastrophic costs occurring in the poorest 20% of households. This analysis is limited by substantial uncertainty regarding costs faced by untreated patients and assumptions of constant patient costs and uniform treatment reductions over time. Conclusions Abrupt reductions in international donor funding for TB may reverse recent progress toward financial risk protection and health equity in LMICs. Strategies to reduce the disruption caused by funding cuts and protect vulnerable populations are urgently needed.