Forecasting tuberculosis prevalence in Afghanistan until 2032: a mathematical modelling analysis

Accurate disease forecasting can inform public health policies. Nonetheless, many countries, including Afghanistan, have yet to learn from this exercise. This study aimed to forecast tuberculosis (TB) prevalence in Afghanistan until 2032 and to estimate the reproduction number R 0 using a mathematical model. We utilised the susceptible–infected (SI) nonlinear epidemic model to forecast the prevalence of TB in Afghanistan. The model parameters were estimated from the data collected by the Afghan Ministry of Public Health between 2013 and 2022. The goodness-of-fit of the SI model was also assessed. The SI model predicted that the prevalence of TB in Afghanistan would increase to 0.214058 by 2032. In addition, we parameterised the model using the TB notification data collected between 2013 and 2022 and estimated the basic reproduction number at approximately 3.39. The study indicates that the SI model predicts a nonlinear increase in TB prevalence in Afghanistan in the years ahead. Therefore, this model can help inform health policymakers in optimising resource allocation and guiding future public health strategies for TB care in the country.