TB Research

Navigating tuberculosis control: A mathematical approach to disease dynamics and vaccination strategies

Khalid Ahmed Al‐Anazi, Takasar Hussain, Muhammad Ozair, Sirda Shafiq, Marium Siddique, Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar, Mohamed Abdalla, Asim Anwar

Alexandria Engineering Journal · 2025-02

Abstract

Tuberculosis has become one of the world’s most serious health issues. We generated a deterministic mathematical model for analyzing how vaccination affects tuberculosis dynamics with slow and fast propagation of disease in a community. The possibility of both endemic and disease-free stable states is explored. The epidemiological threshold, also known as the reproduction number ( R ˆ 0 ) , has been calculated. It has been shown that only reducing the reproduction number below unity is no longer sufficient for preventing tuberculosis (TB) from entering the population due to backwards bifurcation. Numerical simulations are used to validate the conclusions of analytical study. The threshold proportion of vaccinated individuals has been calculated which must be attained for the complete eradication of the disease. It has been demonstrated that the population’s burden of tuberculosis will be decreased by decreasing effective interaction with tuberculosis infected individuals and raising the proportion of vaccination vulnerable individuals with a significant vaccine efficiency.

MeSH terms

  • Vaccination
  • Tuberculosis
  • Dynamics (music)
  • Control (management)
  • Disease control
  • Disease
  • Medicine
  • Virology
  • Mathematics