Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang, China 2010-2023

Background Spatio-temporal analysis is a key epidemiological tool for monitoring disease transmission and identifying outbreak hotspots. However, the patterns of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) spread over time and space in Shijiazhuang remain poorly understood. This study aims to clarify the spatio-temporal dynamics of PTB transmission in this region. Methods We conducted a retrospective study using PTB surveillance data from 2010 to 2023, extracted from the national Tuberculosis Information Management System. Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to assess the severity and distribution characteristics of PTB in Shijiazhuang. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the annual temporal trends. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and Space-time scan analysis were utilized to explore the spatio-temporal clustering characteristics. Results From 2010 to 2023, a total of 54,855 PTB cases were reported, with an average annual incidence of 38.97 per 100,000 population. Males, older adults, and farmers were disproportionately affected. The overall incidence declined significantly (AAPC = -7.65%, p Conclusion This study reveals a declining PTB incidence in Shijiazhuang, with a higher burden among males, older adults, and farmers, alongside persistent spatial clusters in rural areas, particularly in the north. These findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions and strengthened rural surveillance to achieve tuberculosis elimination goals.