Long-term trends and future projections of the burden of tuberculosis among children and adolescents in China

Background China ranks third in estimated TB incidence in 2023, accounting for 6.8% of the global cases. TB in children and adolescents is a public health issue that today warrants priority attention in China. Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate the burden of TB among Chinese children and adolescents aged 0-19 years from 1990 to 2021 and to estimate the incidence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate from 2022 to 2031. Methods The Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify periods of significant change and autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling was employed to predict the TB burden for 2022-2031. Results The study indicated that China has significantly reduced the TB burden among children and adolescents over the past 32 years, the most pronounced reductions in incidence occurred during the periods 2010-2015 (APC = -8.64%, P Conclusions Our findings demonstrate a persistent downward trajectory in TB burden among Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021, with significant gender disparities favoring females across all age groups. Notably, children younger than 5 years and adolescents aged 15-19 years are at higher risk, which emphasizes the importance of tailored interventions to ensure continued progress towards comprehensive TB control goals.