Changes in The Trends of Tuberculosis-related Indicators in Hamadan Province Using the Join Point Regression Approach From 2011 to 2022

Background: This study was conducted to investigate the trend of some tuberculosis (TB) indices and identify existing gaps in addressing this important public health issue in Hamadan province over a long time period. Study Design: A registry-based cross-sectional study. Methods: In this study, we examined the trend of 10 TB indicators separately in males and females, including the incidence rates of smear-positive pulmonary TB (SPPT), extra-pulmonary TB (EPT), and smear-negative pulmonary TB (SNPT), co-infection with AIDS, relapse rate, smear conversion rate two months after treatment initiation, TB mortality rate, diagnosis rate of pulmonary TB with a smear grade of 3+, treatment success rate, and TB diagnosis rate by the private sector in Hamadan province during 2011-2022. The trend analysis of TB was conducted using Joinpoint regression model, and the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated. Results: A total of 481 females and 554 males were eligible for analysis. The incidence of SPPT in females showed a decreasing trend (AAPC: -7.72; 95% CI: -15.63, -1.10; P=0.008). The rates of EPT and treatment success showed a significant downward trend in both genders. In contrast, the recurrence rate among females exhibited a notable upward trend during the specified time period (AAPC: 18.45; 95% CI: 3.23, 46.47; P=0.0002). Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that the epidemiological profile of TB has exhibited a relatively favorable trend in some of the examined indicators since 2011, with declines observed in both SPPT and EPT.