Tuberculosis Prevalence Trends from a Predictive Modelling Study — 10 High-Burden Countries, 1980–2035
Qiuping Chen, CIRAD, Intertryp, Montpellier, France, Qiao Liu, Kangguo Li, Laurent Gavotte, Roger Frutos, Tianmu Chen, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France, et al. (9 authors)
China CDC Weekly · 2024-01
Abstract
What is already known about this topic?: Given the challenges presented by drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis (TB) and the rising mobility of the population, achieving the objective of eradicating TB appears uncertain. What is added by this report?: The examination of TB incidence trends in 10 high-burden countries (HBCs) indicated a steady rise in cases, with India and China jointly accounting for nearly 70% of the burden. Projections for the future show diverse trajectories in these countries, with potential difficulties in reaching the TB elimination target, especially in Nigeria, Congo, and South Africa. What are the implications for public health practice?: The number of TB cases is on the rise. It is crucial to learn from successful strategies to improve TB prevention and control worldwide through collaborative efforts.
MeSH terms
- Tuberculosis
- Medicine
- Incidence (geometry)
- Environmental health
- Public health
- Population
- China
- Geography