Evaluating the Efficacy of Tuberculosis Management Strategies in Nigeria: A Mathematical Modelling Approach

Tuberculosis (TB), an airborne disease caused by Mycobacterium, poses a significant global health challenge due to its rapid transmission through air and interaction with infected individuals. This study presents a comprehensive dynamic model to assess the impact of TB treatment and vaccination strategies in Nigeria, focusing on the comparative analysis of untreated and treated populations, as well as evaluating mortality and recovery outcomes. Through simulations conducted using the Berkeley Madonna Software, it was observed that the populations of latent and susceptible individuals exhibit a near-equivalence, yet the cohort undergoing treatment markedly surpasses other groups. Interestingly, the infected demographic aligns closely with the average values across all compartments. An alarming trend was noted in chronic patients, whose numbers initially increase, followed by a decline over a six-year period, and then a subsequent rise, while the count of treated individuals demonstrates a continuous decrease. The study further reveals a pressing need for treatment among vaccinated individuals, highlighting a nuanced interplay between vaccination and therapeutic interventions. By employing stability and sensitivity analyses, this research underscores the critical importance of treatment in managing TB infection, advocating for enhanced strategies to mitigate the spread of this infectious disease. The findings contribute valuable insights into the dynamics of TB infection and the pivotal role of treatment, underscoring the necessity for integrated approaches in addressing the TB epidemic, particularly in regions burdened by high infection rates.