Tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: time series analysis between 2001 and 2021 and projection until 2030

Objective To assess the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil between 2001 and 2022 and estimate the monthly incidence forecast until 2030. Methods This is a time-series study based on monthly tuberculosis records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and official projections of the Brazilian population. The monthly incidence of tuberculosis from 2001 to 2022 was evaluated using segmented linear regression to identify trend breaks. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) was used to predict the monthly incidence from 2023 to 2030, deadline for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Results There was a decrease in incidence between January/2001 and December/2014 (4.60 to 3.19 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants; β=-0.005; p Conclusion The decreasing trend in tuberculosis cases was reversed from 2015 onwards, a period of economic crisis, and was also impacted by the pandemic when there was a reduction in records. The Sarima model can be a useful forecasting tool for epidemiological surveillance. Greater investments in prevention and control need to be made to reduce the occurrence of tuberculosis, in line with the SDGs.