The Environmental and Socioeconomic Effects and Prediction of Patients With Tuberculosis in Different Age Groups in Southwest China: A Population-Based Study

Background While the End Tuberculosis (TB) Strategy has been implemented worldwide, the cause of the TB epidemic is multifactorial and not fully understood. Objective This study aims to investigate the risk factors of TB and incorporate these factors to forecast the incidence of TB infection across different age groups in Sichuan, China. Methods Correlation and linear regression analyses were conducted to assess the relationships between TB cases and ecological factors, including environmental, economic, and social factors, in Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2017. The transfer function-noise model was used to forecast trends, considering both time and multifactor effects. Results From 2006 to 2017, Sichuan Province had a reported cumulative incidence rate of 1321.08 cases per 100,000 individuals in male patients and 583.04 cases per 100,000 individuals in female patients. There were significant sex differences in the distribution of cases among age groups (trend χ 2 25 =12,544.4; P Conclusions The End TB Strategy in Sichuan should consider environmental, educational, medical, social, personal, and other conditions, and further substantial efforts are needed especially for male patients aged 0-24 years, female patients aged 0-14 years, and female patients older than 64 years.