Effect of ambient air pollution on tuberculosis risks and mortality in Shandong, China: a multi-city modeling study of the short- and long-term effects of pollutants

Few studies conducted in China have assessed the effects of ambient air pollution exposure on tuberculosis (TB) risk and mortality, especially with a multicity setting. We evaluated the effect of short- and long-term ambient sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 2.5 ) exposures on development and mortality of active TB in 7 Chinese cities in Shandong province from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017. We estimated the pollution-associated risk to new infection TB, recurrent TB, and mortality in relation to 1-μg/m 3 increases in air pollutants using the penalized multivariate Poisson regression models. A total of 83,555 new infective TB and 3060 recurrent TB including 997 deaths were recorded. Short- and long-term exposures to outdoor air pollutants (SO 2 , NO 2 , CO, O 3 , and PM 2.5 ) were significantly associated with new infection TB, recurrent TB risk, and mortality. The dominant positive effects of SO 2 , NO 2 , CO, and PM 2.5 for new infection and recurrent TB risk were observed at long-term (>30 days) exposure, whereas the dominant effects of SO 2 , CO, and PM 2.5 for mortality were observed at short-term (≤30 days) exposures. Of the 5 air pollutants we assessed, SO 2 and PM 2.5 exhibited more consistent and strong associations with TB-related outcomes. We estimated an increase of 1.33% (95% CI 1.29%, 1.37%) and 3.04% (95% CI 2.98%, 3.11%) in new infection TB count for each 1-μg/m 3 increase of SO 2 at lag 0-180 days and PM 2.5 at lag 0-365 days, respectively. This epidemiologic study in China shows that air pollution exposure is associated with increased risk of active TB development and mortality. The control of ambient air pollution may benefit the control and decrease the mortality of TB disease.