The Economic Value of Novel Herpes Simplex and Tuberculosis Vaccines

Despite nearly a century long search, a vaccine against Herpes Simplex and Tuberculosis – two of the oldest known human diseases, remain beyond grasp. I developed an accounting scheme to capture the full public health value of each vaccine, which to date, has remained unquantified. I then estimated it on behalf of two international organizations, who are custodians of related global health sector strategies. For the herpes simplex vaccine, using a Cost-of-Illness approach, I estimated that genital herpes in 90 low and middle-income countries can contribute to at least US$2.25 billion in economic losses in 2017. The consumption value of quality of life and disability losses add at least USD60.11 billion and USD0.11 billion, respectively. Incident HIV cases attributable to incident HSV-2 infections, contribute USD2.89 million in ART-related costs and USD432,166 in productivity costs additionally. A vaccine capable of reducing incidence of genital herpes by 50 percent, can reduce at least USD1.12 billion of the economic losses, and USD0.11 billion and USD4.91 billion of the consumption value of disability and quality of life losses, respectively. For TB, using a Full-Income approach, I estimated that TB mortality can give rise to USD580 billion in welfare losses, in 120 countries in 2018. From 2020 to 2050, welfare losses grow to USD 17.50 trillion. If the End TB mortality target is met in 2030, USD13.15 trillion (75.17 percent) can be averted. If the target is met in 2045, USD10.19 trillion of the USD17.50 trillion (58.23 percent) can be averted. The cost of not meeting the End TB target until 2045 (what I designated as the ‘Cost of Inaction’) is USD2.96 trillion. By introducing a vaccine similar to the M72/AS01E candidate vaccine, in India, USD910 billion to USD2.23 trillion in welfare savings are attainable. The lower bound represents savings if introduced in 2030, to populations aged 18 to 49 years; the upper bound, if introduced in 2020, to all individuals latently infected. Estimates of the economic gains, when organized using the accounting scheme that I developed, can serve as an instrument for establishing global priority on vaccines.