Estimating the Incidence of Tuberculosis — Shanghai, China, 2025−2050

Despite the impressive achievements in eliminating tuberculosis (TB), the TB burden is still heavy in China. By 2010, China halved the prevalence and mortality reported in 1990, but China is still one of 30 high-TB burden countries in the world. A dynamic transmission model including both rifampin resistant TB (RR-TB) and relapse of pulmonary TB was created. The TB incidence of Shanghai in 2025 and 2035 was predicted, and sensitively analysis of reducing transmission, treating latent TB infection (LTBI), and reducing the recurrence rate was conducted. Screening for latent TB infections should be carried out regularly in high-risk groups and areas using tuberculin skin testing and/or interferon gamma release assays.