Respiratory tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Estonia: 30-year trends and sociodemographic determinants

Objective To explore time trends in the incidence and mortality of respiratory tuberculosis (TB) over a 30-year period in Estonia, and to evaluate disease disparities according to sex, age, ethnicity and education. Design Data from the TB Register and the Causes of Death Register were used to assess time trends in age-standardised incidence and mortality rates. The effect of sociodemographic characteristics on TB risk was modelled using Poisson regression around three population censuses. Results Respiratory TB incidence and mortality decreased in males and were stable in females in 1987-1991, after which the rates increased sharply in both sexes until 1998 and decreased steadily afterwards. Multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) incidence rose in males until 1998 and in females until 2002, and then started to fall. The incidence of TB and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection in males increased until 2007 and decreased thereafter. Less educated people and non-Estonians had a significantly higher relative risk of respiratory TB. Conclusion Estonia, one of the countries most affected by TB in the World Health Organization European Region, has made considerable progress in reducing the risk of respiratory TB, TB-HIV and MDR-TB. Continuing education- and ethnicity-related disparities in TB risk remain a concern.