Changes in the epidemic of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shanghai from 1992 to 2016

Objective To estimate whether WHO's End TB Strategy targets can be achieved by analysing the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shanghai during 1992-2016. Method The age-adjusted annual incidence of tuberculosis (TB) was calculated based on data from the national TB registration system. Linear regression was applied to analyse the trend of the epidemic, together with the statistical indicator of annual percent change (APC). Results The overall age-standardised rate decreased from 34.8/100 000 in 1992 to 21.2/100 000 in 2016, or by 2.15% (t = -13.258, P Conclusion The epidemic of TB in Shanghai has steadily declined during last two decades. A new strategy should be developed to rapidly reduce the incidence rate to achieve the WHO Goals in 2035.